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执行共管公寓（EC）利润翻倍破100%！当局或重新检讨EC相关政策，且买且珍惜_我的网站

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一 | On a balmy summer day in mid-August of 2021, the 20-year US-led nation-building project in Afghanistan came to an abrupt end. Following a 10-day blitzkrieg offensive in which the Taliban* captured 32 of the country’s 34 provinces with little resistance, the militants encircled and then entered Kabul and caused its government to flee, all while US and coalition forces, diplomats, and intelligence agents were still evacuating.,Afghanistan has been mired in foreign-backed civil conflict for generations, with the US-led invasion of the country in 2001 ensuing 23 years after the CIA kicked off Operation Cyclone - a covert action involving the deployment of jihadist fighters and tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and cash to Afghanistan to fight a fledgling Soviet-backed government.,“We have to look at the history – the United States created the Afghan mujahedeen against the Soviet Union, when the Soviet Union came to help Afghanistan…That Islamic fundamentalism which includes Taliban, Mujahideen, ISIS [Daesh]** and others was created by the West,” says Dr. Zalmay Gulzad, a specialist on Afghan politics and professor of social sciences at Harold Washington College in Chicago.,WorldA Tale of Two Withdrawals: Why Soviet and US Pull-Outs From Afghanistan Were So Different18 August 2021, 04:00 GMT,In the mid-1990s, a few years after the end of the Cold War, Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, boasted that the overarching goal of the US project in Afghanistan was to “make the Soviets bleed for as much and as long as is possible,” and to coordinate with the intelligence services from the UK, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries to make this happen.,Over four decades on, this strategy remains central to Washington’s calculations, Dr. Gulzad says, comparing US attempts to now use the Taliban to stir up trouble along Russia’s soft underbelly in Central Asia to the NATO proxy conflict against Moscow in Ukraine. Iran is another major target of US geopolitical ambitions, and Washington would like to play on the differences between the Sunni Taliban and the Shia Iranian state to “create problems” for the Islamic Republic, the academic argues.,Taliban Promise Safety for Resistance Leaders Including Ahmad Massoud as They Meet in Tehran10 January, 13:57 GMT,Graveyard of Empires,Brown University’s Costs of War project has calculated that the War in Afghanistan cost the United States alone more than $2.3 trillion, equivalent to $300 million per day for nearly 20 straight years. Notwithstanding the extravagant spending, and the rotational deployment of over 800,000 US troops and tens of thousands of personnel from over three dozen allied nations over the past generation, the Afghanistan project, once described by Harvard academic and chickenhawk Michael Ignatieff as a “humanitarian” “nation-building lite” adventure, has failed spectacularly.,The causes are legion, ranging from the pervasive corruption of Afghanistan’s political institutions and security structures (whose true fragility was demonstrated in August 2021), to the coalition’s tolerance for and even cooperation with unsavory warlords, drug traffickers, and even child sex criminals, and the imperious nature of the Western-backed project itself.,“It was a lost battle from the beginning,” says Dr. Swasti Rao, an associate fellow at the Europe and Eurasia Center at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.,US 'Lost Track' of Afghan War Aims, Says Retired Marine General12 August, 17:00 GMT,“One of the problems with the US is that it wishes to see the entire world in its own mirror image, what is called the liberal world order comprising of free market and democracy. This approach has a problem when enforced top down without taking account the regional and grassroots realities, cultural sensibilities of the people at hand. The government of Ashraf Ghani was never a popular government with massive charges of corruption that the Afghan people did not identify with,” Rao explains.,The researcher noted that all around the world, but in West Asia in particular, the “project of the liberal order of which the US considers itself a custodian” has met with failure.,“After 20 years, about $2.5 trillion and the lives of its citizens and soldiers, the US realized that retreating is the best possible decision, something they had been planning for a long time,” Rao says.,Challenges, Opportunities,A year on from Kabul’s fall, the situation in Afghanistan is unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous, both for ordinary Afghans and for countries in the region.,“After one year of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover, it is Afghans who are suffering more than any other regional or extra-regional states,” says Shreyas Deshmukh, a researcher with the National Security Program at Delhi Policy Group, an India-based think tank.,“Now it is evident that the Taliban has not given up its extremist tendencies and will continue to stick with its interpretation of the extremist Sharia-based governance model. They do not have any concrete ideas to govern the state because [the Taliban] is a primarily insurgent organization. Therefore, anti-social elements including other terrorist organizations, drug lords, and human traffickers [have been] taking advantage of this vacuum. During the initial months after the Taliban takeover, the level of violence was reduced but now there is an uptick, as anti-Taliban forces are regrouping,” Deshmukh notes.,AfghanistanTaliban Militants Fire Into Air to Disperse Women's Protest in Kabul - Videos13 August, 07:44 GMT,The researcher points to an important dilemma for the Taliban: whether to make concessions on its governance model in exchange for cooperation with, assistance from, and possible recognition from other countries. Such a decision, Deshmukh notes, would carry with it the risk of heightening divisions within the Taliban’s ranks and even raise the possibility of their government’s collapse and renewed civil war. “On the contrary, if they implement a strict interpretation of Sharia law while going against international norms then the country will once again become a haven for terrorist organizations,” he warns.,Dr. Rao concurs with this pessimistic appraisal of Afghanistan’s internal situation, noting that while the Taliban proved capable of taking over from the Western-backed government, “they do not know how to engage in governance per se, let alone [create an] inclusive government with minorities and women. It’s been a year of denial of women’s rights, media crackdown, and retaliatory killings amid mass hunger. Especially with the Taliban bringing back the feared Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, enforcing the group’s austere interpretation of Islam, it is more unlikely that women or minorities might have a say in the government any time in the foreseeable future,” he says.,Worse yet, Rao says, if the situation continues to fester, it will cause “even more unrest, drugs and illegal weapons smuggling, bloody fights between various fundamentalist groups like ISIS-K and the Taliban; in short a situation that will remain a regional security [concern] with uncontrolled global ramifications.”,The scholar emphasizes that the international community has asked the Taliban to form an inclusive government, ensure the rights of women and minorities, and guarantee that Afghanistan will no longer serve as a launch pad for global terror operations. “Unless that happens, the trade or investment promised by China will not flow. It is important to note that even Russia and China, which share a better equation with the Taliban compared to the Western world, have not recognized their government,” Rao believes.,WorldLithium, Gold & Rare Earths: How China May Open the Door to New Business Opportunities for Afghans19 August 2021, 08:38 GMT,At the same time, the researcher notes that although the US withdrawal exacerbated regional chaos, landed sophisticated weapons in Taliban hands, and created a regional power vacuum, it also “created space for countries like Russia, China and Iran to play a far more decisive role in the region,” as Washington shifted its attention to Eastern Europe and China.,Deshmukh concurs. “The Taliban is not a designated terrorist organization by many states including the US. However, its leadership is under UNSC and US sanctions. The real question is, will the countries recognize the Taliban regime in the near future? China, Pakistan, Russia, and Qatar have given some signals that they might recognize the regime. However, it remains a risky business considering that the Taliban is continuing close cooperation with terrorist organizations like AQ, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Many of their leaders have taken safe haven in Afghanistan.”,“No country would like to align itself with this regime and recognize them, for now. Meanwhile, they will continue to engage with the Taliban to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghans, keep a tab on terrorist elements which could threaten the national interest of those countries, and further to reap some economic benefits from Afghanistan,” Deshmukh concludes.,* A group under United Nations sanctions for terrorist activities.,** A terrorist group outlawed in Russia and many other countries.。

二 | 去年达MOP项目中数EC单位转售毛利润率破100% 根据合登集团数据，去年和今年共有九个EC项目满五年MOP，可开始转售套利。今年达到五年MOP的项目中，位于杨厝港的Hundred Palms Residences最吸金，扣除交易费和税务，转售毛利高达71万3800元，毛利润率最高93.2%。Hundred Palms Residences去年达MOP的项目中，好几个单位转售时毛利润率冲破100%，包括乐阳轩（Sol Acres）、万宝园（Treasure Crest）和万乐轩（Wandervale）。

三 | 　乐阳轩（Sol Acres）万宝园（Treasure Crest）万乐轩（Wandervale）执行共管公寓转售利润节节升高，过去三年转售的单位，扣除卖方印花税后的平均毛利超过51万元，比2020年冠病疫情前三年的31万多元，高出近65%。受访分析师指出，相较于私宅和政府组屋，转售执行共管公寓（EC）取得的利润比率极为可观。这或许意味，是时候重新检讨EC相关政策，包括采纳跟黄金和优选地段组屋一样、长达10年的最低居住年限（Minimum Occupancy Period，简称MOP），以及增加政府售地计划（GLS）的EC供应。不过，分析师也指出，新的EC项目尺价越来越高，如今在高峰期购买的买家，未来卖出时利润率可能下降。

四 | 受访分析师提供给《联合早报》的数据，2022年、2023年，以及2024年（截至8月11日），转售EC单位扣除卖方印花税后的平均毛利，为51万8428元。相比之下，2020年疫情前三年，也就是2017年至2019年期间，转售EC单位扣除卖方印花税后的平均毛利，为31万5038元。这两段期间的平均毛利，相差64.6%。

五 | 合登集团高级数据分析总监李思德也观察到，去年和今年转售的EC单位，较2018年至2020年卖出的更赚钱。ALTURA EC (ACS 英华小学一公里）橙易集团首席研究与战略总监孙燕清指出，转售EC价格近几年增长速度加快，带动EC转售市场利润大幅提高。市区重建局数据显示，转售EC的平均尺价不断提高，从2019年的848元，涨至2022年的1100元，以及2024年截至8月11日的1293元。孙燕清说：“相较于一些私宅和组屋，EC的利润率相当可观。由于政府给予这类买家大量补贴，而EC政策已实施一段时间，是时候重新检讨。政府即将在新的分类制度下推出新建组屋，它们须遵守新政策和购买条件。有鉴于此，为未来所有获津贴的房屋统一条例会比较好。

六 | ”NORTH GAIA EC （义顺唯一EC 崇福小学一公里）今年10月起，预购组屋会按照新的分类框架出售，即标准（Standard）、优选（Plus）和黄金（Prime）地段，以确保组屋价格合理，避免买家不公平地获取暴利。处于黄金和优选地段的组屋将有长达10年的MOP规定。此前，大亨房地产网站（MOGUL.sg）首席研究师麦俊荣就说，不排除政府也会对EC做出类似调整。EC是私宅和组屋的混合体，申请者总家庭月入不可超过1万6000元，新EC售价比私人公寓低，购屋者可享津贴。EC同组屋一样，设购买条件和转售限制。目前，屋主须住满五年，才能把房子卖给公民和永久居民。10年后，EC项目私有化，房子可卖给外国人和公司团体。博纳产业研究与内容主管黄秀莹说，EC转售盈利取决于多个因素，包括进场价、购买和转售时的供需、市场整体状况。

七 | “假设未来几年私宅市场价格增长平稳或缓慢，甚至调整，那么今时今日购买价格较高EC单位的买家，届时不太可能获得巨大收益。”博纳产业8月5日发布针对约1250名组屋屋主进行的调查显示，55%受访者认为新EC价格，令人难以负担。对此，博纳产业提出几项建议，包括把目前30%的每月偿还贷款比率（Mortgage Servicing Ratio）调高、上修家庭月收入顶限，以及通过政府售地计划（GLS）正选名单中推出更多EC地段。LUMINA GRAND EC (ACS 英华小学一公里）地段尺价屡创新高 EC土地尺价最近屡创新高。8月初，白沙区惹兰罗央勿刹的EC地段招标截止，最高竞标价相当于容积率每平方英尺729元，创下新高。分析师估计，EC项目销售尺价或超1550元，料再创新标杆。根据博纳产业计算，过去几年，政府每年通常推出两幅正选EC地段供招标，展商标地竞争更激烈，进而推高竞标价格，若每年可推出四幅，有助抑制竞标价。国家发展部今年2月5日通过书面答复宏茂桥集选区议员颜添宝询问时透露，2021年到2023年，EC单位供应稳步增加，去年推出两幅正选EC地段，可兴建1260个单位，为三年最大供应量。